January 13, 2026

Joachim Guilliard, a German antiwar activist who runs the German blog Nachgetragen and who has contributed to books about West Asia, wrote the following article Jan. 9, 2026, in his continuing coverage of events in the region.
Translated by Tlaxcala and revised by Workers World staff, who maintained Guilliard’s notes.

The strong wave of protest that spread in Iran at the end of 2025 against economic misery did not come as a surprise. The economic blockades steadily intensified over the course of the year, and the direct military aggression by Israel and the United States in June has significantly exacerbated the country’s economic problems. The embargo Iran faces is as comprehensive and brutal as the one against Cuba.

While the country manages to somewhat cushion the effects by expanding trade with Russia, China and its Asian neighbors, the financial losses and supply problems are still considerable. Among other things, they lead to a steady devaluation of the Iranian currency, growing loss of purchasing power and persistently high inflation, which soared to over 50% after the blockades were reinstated by the U.S. president in 2018 and has since averaged 35%. Other domestic crises are also exacerbated by the embargo. Millions of people, including from the middle class, are thus increasingly being driven into poverty. [1]

This is precisely the openly proclaimed goal of Trump. Iranians are to be driven to despair by a drastic deterioration in living conditions to the point where they rise up against the regime. This is in itself also the general calculation behind economic sanctions [2] and is also pursued by Berlin, Paris and London. The United Nations and European Union (EU) economic sanctions reactivated by them via “snapback” further devalued the exchange rate and drove inflation to almost 50%.

The trigger for the current protests was ultimately an extreme plunge in the exchange rate of the [Iranian currency] rial against the dollar. Merchants in Tehran’s bazaar consequently closed their shops and took to the streets. The rial had lost another 10% of its value within a few days. As this was exceptional even for an Iran accustomed to currency crashes, its leadership sees the “hand of the enemy” behind it. [3]

Although demonstrations spread to wide parts of the country, the hopes of the U.S. and its European allies have not been fulfilled so far. Even if Western media seek to convey a different impression, the protests are not aimed at overthrowing the regime but are predominantly directed against inflation, insecure employment, precarious living conditions and the government’s inadequate measures to counter them.

In the tense situation, the government is reacting more restrainedly than in previous protests. [4] It declares the demands to be justified, seeks dialogue and makes initial concessions, such as tax relief for merchants and higher subsidies. [5] President Masoud Pezeshkian also admitted, however, that the government currently lacks the means to solve the economic crisis. [6]

Evidently, armed groups also endeavored to escalate demonstrations. In several provinces, there were violent riots, buildings were set on fire and police stations attacked. Iranian security forces responded with corresponding severity. They also suspect foreign interference, certainly not without reason.

Surveillance, charges and arrests had increased since June, after drone attacks, assassinations and sabotage from within Iranian territory had shown the extent to which sensitive areas of the country had been infiltrated by Israeli and U.S. intelligence services. Pro-Western opposition figures thus came under increased suspicion. As always, attacks, attempts to destabilize and economic blockades drastically narrow political spaces for civil society [peaceful mass protest].

In no way do the Western measures to strangle Iranian society and the massive support for anti-government forces in the country have anything to do with encouraging freedom and democracy. They are also not primarily aimed at the Iranian nuclear program.

The Western goal is the elimination of a regional power which, with its wealth in resources, high level of education and technological prowess, has enormous potential for development. Much like Venezuela does, Iran maintains strategic alliances with China, Russia, and other adversaries of the West, conducts trade bypassing the dollar and due to its geographical location is a multipolar hub.

As there are no sufficiently strong forces within the country itself [for the West to use as the core of] a pro-Western regime, the U.S., Israel and the EU aim to bring Iran down to the level of Syria, Iraq or Lebanon.

Notes

[1] Iran nach dem Zwölf-Tage-Krieg, Unsere Zeit of Dec. 26, 2025

[2] Joachim Guilliard, Arsenal des Faustrechts: Wirtschaftsblockaden, Menschenrechte und der Widerstand des Südens, IMI-Studie 2024/4, May 24, 2024

[3] Sayyed Khamenei links currency devaluation to “enemy hand,” Al Mayadeen, Jan. 3, 2026

[4] Tehran adjusts its public tone as protests return, Iran International, Jan. 1, 2026

[5] Iran President Moves to Calm Protests With Vow to Fix Budget, Bloomberg, Dec. 30, 2025, Iran Offers Citizens $7 a Month in a Bid to Cool Protests, New York Times, Jan. 5, 2026

[6] Iran’s Pezeshkian urges unity as protests over economic woes turn deadly, Aljazeera, December 31, 2025