By G. Dunkel
May 7, 2026
The war which President Donald J. Trump, with assistance from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, blithely began Feb. 28 with a decapitation strike on the leadership of Iran, has had deleterious effects on billions of workers, particularly in Africa, Latin America and East Asia. Workers in Europe and North America have also been hit with higher prices, especially for transportation.
Women walking in Teheran in front of a banner showing a US warship under attack.
Of course, human suffering is most acutely felt in West Asia. According to boasts from the Pentagon, 17,000 targets have been bombed in Iran with just 14 U.S. casualties and 381 troops wounded in what it calls “Operation Epic Fury.” Iran says that over 3,400 Iranians have been killed and over 10,000 injured in this conflict. In just a few months the war has killed and injured tens of thousands of people, especially in Iran and Lebanon.
Beyond West Asia, the fact that poor countries are having to spend more money for oil and consequently have less for healthcare does have consequences.
Iran was justified in limiting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. and Israel attacked it militarily. This was a legitimate act of self-defense after Trump’s sneak attack, including the slaughter of children attending school, while Iran was attempting to negotiate. The U.S. and Israel are responsible for any negative consequences of the closure of the strait.
The fact that major amounts of urea and ammonia, essential to the production of fertilizer, are being kept from the world’s markets by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is going to impact the production of food. This impact won’t be measurable until the harvests come in a few months from now. But it means that food will be much more expensive in the near future, even if it’s available.
The Horn of Africa
The Horn of Africa consists of Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somaliland. Some broader geopolitical definitions include parts or all of Kenya and Sudan. According to a report in the Ethiopian Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA), it has about 300 million people in it. (ifa.gov.et, May 1)
According to the IFA: “The Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region is geopolitically one of the most volatile regions. … The region is a maritime corridor for 15 % of global trade and constitutes 25 % of the data traffic between Asia and Europe.”
The IFA is also worrying about “the potential disruption of the underwater internet cable passing through the Red Sea,” which Iran and Yemen’s Ansarallah are concerned will be treated as a legitimate military target. The IFA states: “Ethiopia and the neighboring states are heavily dependent on these fiber-optics links. The severing of these cables would disrupt Horn countries’ digital economy, financial systems and government operations, with cascading effects on business, education and emergency services.”
The IFA points to the scarcity of fertilizer as a threat to food production in the Horn.
How long before oil reserves run out
The Strait of Hormuz being closed keeps 20% of world trade in oil and liquid natural gas (LNG) from reaching the market. A number of other commodities such as urea, ammonia, methanol, sulfur, aluminum (9% of world’s supply), helium (33% of world’s supply) and graphite (petcoke) used for batteries are also being blockaded. Close to 1,000 tankers and freighters along with 20,000 seafarers are still west of Hormuz and not in service.
Given panic buying and these logistical kinks created by Hormuz being mainly closed, many countries are relying on withdrawals from their reserves. The International Energy Agency has released 400 million barrels of oil. This is about what the world uses in three or four days.
Such a rate of drawdowns is unsustainable. If the strait remains closed, it is probably just weeks before the physical lack of oil grows acute.
While imperialism is responsible for the situation, the workers and oppressed people of the world will suffer the consequences.
